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February 6, 2005
Let the North Korea Sucession Games begin. . . . .
Last week I brought up the possibility that Kim Jung Il of N. Korea, may have been assassinated and we'd know more of the Dear Leaders fate on the twelth (his birthday).
Well, this weekend a number of sources are reporting that the Dear Leader is talking (through others) about the transfer of control to one of his sons.
Asia News touts Kim Jong-Chul, 23 as the next in line.
Reuters-India speaks to the dynastic wishes of the Kim family and it's Stalinist Patriarch.
My guess is that Kim Jong-Il is dead and the N. Korean government is planning to announce the succession this week.
Why do I think he's already dead? It's all speculation, but I believe that Kim Jung-Il was killed in a massive explosion. We know his train was in the area, and he hasn't been seen since. We also have the removal of his portraits. It appears that maybe someone pulled off a coup and are bracing the world for the announcement by giving Kim a lower profile.
Finally, on the eve of his birthday we have succession talk coming out of N. Korea. If this turns out to be the case it will be a remarkable feat of information engineering on the part of the N. Koreans.
We'll see this week though won't we.
I hope that I'm right, not just to pay myself on the back, but also because I believe that ANY change in N. Korea will be positive for the world at large. Any new government emerging would almost certainly back off of the hard edge that Kim Jung-Il is offering to the world. They know, as a nation, their economy is in a state of utter failure. They need the break along with some sort of economic aid, if they hope to retain any sort of control in the near future.
Pressure is coming from every direction to open up to inspections and disarmament, but The Dear Leader is the brick wall. Without Kim all things are possible. The moderates and even the conservative revolutionaries have to know they are between a rock and a hard place. If they choose to continue saber-rattling at the rest of the world, their economic situation will engulf them into famine and chaos. If they open up, the West will certainly ask for some sort of Democratic reforms.
The N. Korean people can see the success of their neighbors to the South. Any crack in the revolutionary dam will almost certainly lead to a cascading wave of democratic activity that will be supported by the U.S., Japan, South Korea and others.
Any new government that sticks it's head up on the 12th will certainly be keenly watched immediately for signs that peace can be achieved. I only hope that everyone keeps a cool head in the process.
In other N. Korean news, the N. Korean embassy has asked the Czech Republic to ban Team America: World Police-LINK NOT WORK-SAFE
--Jason
Posted by JasonColeman at February 6, 2005 8:00 PM
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